The Nagorno Karabakh Conflict Explained- Geopolitics under the façade of Ethno-Nationalism
Drawing in of Russia and Turkey in the reignition of long-festering conflict is opening another front in their quest for regional influence.
Burnishing ethnic credentials for political reasons is not a novel phenomenon in international affairs. Ethic disputes perpetuate the sentiments of injustice, ethnic domination, and discrimination among various segments of a population that keep a particular territory plunged into chaos. The latest manifestation of this trend was the deadly skirmishes in the autonomous region of Nagorno Karabakh. Nagorno Karabakh conflict has existed for decades, with no insight, solution of this chimera despite various mediation attempts. Specifically, this conflict stems from the long-standing historical grievances and ethnic tensions between Armenia and Azerbaijan. However, the geographical location and the timings of the latest flareup give weightage to the notions of a wider geopolitical agenda. Also, the emergence of Russia and Turkey in this conflict in South Caucasus gives a precarious dimension to this inferno, thus, an impetuous to a new regional order.
Why are Armenia and Azerbaijan fighting now?
The sins of ignorance and indefinite prolongation of the conflict over several decades came together on September 27, 2020, when the latest fighting emerged between Armenia and Azerbaijan. The conflagration had all ingredients for the recipe of modern-day warfare, including sophisticated drones and artillery bombardments, resulting in massive civilian causalities on both sides. Russia brokered truce was breached immediately after the announcement, with both parties accusing each other of breaching the pact. As hostilities have entered their third week, the prospects of a permanent solution to the quagmire remain gloomy.
What is the geopolitical significance of the latest skirmishes in the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict?
In contrast to the past clashes along the Armenia-Azerbaijan border and other occupied districts, the geographical location of the latest skirmishes creates the prospect of a broader geopolitical agenda. The fighting took place 300 km from their international border, which is adjacent to the Sothern gas corridor, a gas supply route, to diversify European energy supply routes and reduce the dependence on Russian gas. Fighting broke some days before the announcement of the completion of The Trans Adriatic Pipeline, a project in the Southern gas corridor. The location and the timings of the clashes cannot be fortuitous. The eruption of fighting alongside the infrastructure in which various countries have energy and economic stakes will hamper its functionality.
How did the Nagorno Karabakh Conflict start?
The genesis of the Nagorno Karabakh conflict goes to 1923 when Joseph Stalin declared Nagorno Karabakh as an autonomous region within Azerbaijan, even though 90 percent population of the area was ethnic Armenians.
Although The Armenian Soviet Socialist Republic repeatedly called to detach Karabakh from Azerbaijan and make it a part of Armenia, however, the conflict formally erupted in 1988 during the decaying days of the Soviet Union, when mass demonstrations in Yerevan called for the detachment. Ethnic Armenians did not also accept Azerbaijan’s control over them. These protests followed the massive infighting between Armenians and Azerbaijanis across both the republics.
When the Soviet Union disintegrated in 1991, Armenian separatists seized the territory of Nagorno Karabakh, resulting in a full-scale war with Nagorno Karabakh and Armenia on one end and Azerbaijan on the opposite end. However, Armenia holds the territory, and Azeris from the region have been expelled.
The fragile cease-fire in 1994, after the mass casualties, did little to alter the unrecognized status of the Nagorno Karabakh. It was still de facto independent and outside of Azerbaijani control, but de jure was lying within the international borders of Azerbaijan. Negotiations over the Nagorno Karabakh conflict have remained deadlocked, and conflict is frozen as both parties remained adamant about their positions.
The organization of Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE) created a Minsk group that had diplomats from France, Russia, and the U.S to carve out an enduring solution to the conflict, but negotiations have remained deadlocked.
What stakes do Russian and Turkey have in the Nagorno Karabakh Conflict?
Russia and Turkey have now emerged as stakeholders in the conflict. The involvement of Russia and Turkey can spiral the conflict into a bigger catastrophe. Russia, in its bid to yield influence in its near abroad, enjoys considerable influence over both the states, who were formerly the parts of the Russian empire. Russia is also defense-agreement bound with Armenia. Turkey, on the other hand, has sided with its Muslim ally Azerbaijan. Turkey and Azerbaijan also have a common ground against Armenia in Turkish and Armenian animosity because of the grim atrocities of the Armenian Genocide, which Turkey denies. Russia and Turkey are again daggers drawn against each other in this conflict. Both states are already are vying for the influence in the conflicts in Libya and Syria.
An all-out war following the increasing hostilities and fiery rhetoric from both sides could result in an all-out war in South Caucasus. Russian support to Armenia and Turkey, who blatantly support Azerbaijan, as part of Erdogan’s aggressive foreign policy maneuvers, make the prospects of a broader regional conflagration inevitable.
Any future course of events set forth by both Russia and Turkey would be in response to counter each other’s influence. Drawing in Russia and Turkey could result in unforeseeable implications for regional security.
In a nutshell
The timings, geographical location, and the drawing in of major regional powers Turkey and Russia in the reignition of a long-simmering Nagorno Karabakh conflict connotate a conflagration for a wider geopolitical agenda. On one hand, the re-emergence of the conflict amid the completion of a chapter in the Southern-gas corridor cannot be accidental, which will hinder the completion of the project aimed to reduce Europe’s dependence on Russian gas. On the other hand, the opening of another front in Russian and Turkish bid for regional influence can draw the region deep into a bigger catastrophe. It is early to conclude whether this conflagration was aimed at halting the European program to diversify its energy supplies or will intensify Russian-Turkish animosity, however, it provides validation of the fact that Russia and Turkey have, now, emerged as important stakeholders in the region, when the west is grappling with the Covid-19 pandemic and internal turmoil. The frequent clashes call for the shift of the global community from stabilizing the fragile cease-fire to long term and viable solution to avoid a region-wide war that will provoke not only Armenia and Azerbaijan but Turkey, Russia, and NATO too.
